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	<title>Crap Statistics</title>
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	<description>A Busman's Holiday</description>
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		<title>Crap Statistics</title>
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		<title>SWINE FLU PIGS EAR</title>
		<link>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2011/01/10/swine-flu-pigs-ear/</link>
		<comments>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2011/01/10/swine-flu-pigs-ear/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Jan 2011 14:29:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>crapstats</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crapstats.wordpress.com/?p=108</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Miriam Stoppard in the Daily Mirror today: (didn&#8217;t she used to be a doctor?) &#8220;Swine flu can be very severe in young people. Of those in intensive care with flu, one in 10 is under the age of 15, with one in 20 cases under five.&#8221; Now I know that she isn&#8217;t saying that swine [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=crapstats.wordpress.com&amp;blog=586344&amp;post=108&amp;subd=crapstats&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://http://www.mirror.co.uk/advice/miriam/2011/01/10/your-ultimate-guide-to-surviving-the-flu-115875-22838977/">Miriam Stoppard in the Daily Mirror today</a>: (didn&#8217;t she used to be a doctor?)<br />
<strong>&#8220;Swine flu can be very severe in young people. Of those in intensive care with flu, one in 10 is under the age of 15, with one in 20 cases under five.&#8221;<br />
</strong>Now I know that she isn&#8217;t saying that swine flu is more common amongst young people &#8211; but don&#8217;t you think that&#8217;s the intention? Proportion of UK humans under 15: 1 in 6; proportion of UK humans under 5: 1 in 16.</p>
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		<title>Happy to be on an island in the rain</title>
		<link>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/12/22/happy-to-be-on-an-island-in-the-rain/</link>
		<comments>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/12/22/happy-to-be-on-an-island-in-the-rain/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Dec 2010 14:41:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>crapstats</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crapstats.wordpress.com/?p=106</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So a couple of months ago, David Cameron suggested that there should be a UK happiness index to mirror the GDP figures. Now the more astute of you may have realised that there may be a connection between your bloggeratus and the market research industry and I&#8217;m rather dreading the attempt to collect this data. [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=crapstats.wordpress.com&amp;blog=586344&amp;post=106&amp;subd=crapstats&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So a couple of months ago, David Cameron suggested that there should be a UK happiness index to mirror the GDP figures. Now the more astute of you may have realised that there may be a connection between your bloggeratus and the market research industry and I&#8217;m rather dreading the attempt to collect this data.<br />
There will be three problems: the difficulty in maintaining trends in ongoing surveys; the political nature of the interpretation (see the British Crime Survey for a great example of noise about data rather than data noise); the understandable desire of the client to want to know &#8216;why&#8217; rather than than just &#8216;how much&#8217;.<br />
The result will be that if you are asked to take the British Happiness Survey, about half an hour into the process, you will find yourself being asked questions like:<br />
&#8216;Comparing yourself now to a year ago, have the activities of the Charity Commission in your opinion made you&#8217;<br />
- Much More Happy<br />
- Somewhat More Happy<br />
- Neither More nor Less Happy<br />
- Somewhat Less Happy<br />
- Much less Happy<br />
- Don&#8217;t Know</p>
<p>Anyway Mrs Blog pointed out that some people were made happy by raping people. I think that she was making the point that this sort of happiness was not desirable, but I am more interested in the problem of measuring such happiness.</p>
<p>My solution is to contact a random sample and collect where possible an anonymous blood sample &#8211; obviously it has to be very anonymous to deal with our hypothetical rapist. This can then be tested for serotonin levels to provide an accurate trend information on average happiness levels.<br />
The detailed questions as above can then be collected separately from a different sample where they can be treated with the respect they deserve.</p>
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		<title>If this is true, I&#8217;ll eat my cat</title>
		<link>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/11/15/if-this-is-true-ill-eat-my-cat/</link>
		<comments>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/11/15/if-this-is-true-ill-eat-my-cat/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Nov 2010 11:20:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>crapstats</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crapstats.wordpress.com/?p=96</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#60;&#60;From the Guardian The authors of a recent book, Time to Eat the Dog?, warned that the energy required to feed a cat is the same as that required to build and drive a Volkswagen Golf for 6,000 miles a year. Robert Vale, one of the authors, has said that poultry and rabbits have a [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=crapstats.wordpress.com&amp;blog=586344&amp;post=96&amp;subd=crapstats&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&lt;&lt;From the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/31/sutainably-caught-fish-for-cats">Guardian</a> The authors of a recent book, Time to Eat the Dog?, warned that the energy required to feed a cat is the same as that required to build and drive a Volkswagen Golf for 6,000 miles a year.</p>
<p>Robert Vale, one of the authors, has said that poultry and rabbits have a lower impact than red meat and fish when used as pet food. &#8220;When feeding a pet… the advice is to think feathers and long ears, not horns and fins,&#8221; he said.&gt;&gt;</p>
<p>OK, I suppose that the energy used to make a volkswagen is spread over the whole of the cats expected lifespan &#8211; but even so this seems a little surprising &#8211; I realise that that is the point but</p>
<p>Can we all join in? Please post your most amazing statistics about energy use here. Note that no proof is required.</p>
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		<title>Jon Sadleir is a cunt</title>
		<link>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/10/10/jon-sadleir-is-a-cunt/</link>
		<comments>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/10/10/jon-sadleir-is-a-cunt/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Oct 2010 10:27:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>crapstats</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crapstats.wordpress.com/?p=91</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Another bit of a misuse of this blog. This one has a vaguely statistical purpose to see how easy it may be to spread what I hope is a bit of misinformation and is certainly not literally accurate. Do you remember poster campaigns in which they tried to show the power of the medium by [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=crapstats.wordpress.com&amp;blog=586344&amp;post=91&amp;subd=crapstats&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Another bit of a misuse of this blog. This one has a vaguely statistical purpose to see how easy it may be to spread what I hope is a bit of misinformation and is certainly not literally accurate. Do you remember poster campaigns in which they tried to show the power of the medium by putting up posters wth strange images like &#8220;<a href="http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/Adverts/Question319980.html">My name&#8217;s Amy and I like Slugs and Snails</a>&#8220;? Guess what &#8211; everyone noticed them in a way that they didn&#8217;t notice posters that said &#8216;Kelloggs Cornflakes are delicious and you should eat lots of them every morning.&#8221; Then the poster companies could claim that posters were a very effective advertising channel.<br />
Well this is like that &#8211; so please feel free to link to this post if you want to help take part in a completely inaccurate scientific experiment.<br />
For your information, the Jon Sadleir in question is jonsadleir@yahoo.com and his website is nopinchback.com. It doesn&#8217;t work at the moment which may well be typical of his underestimation of the power of the interweb thing.</p>
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		<title>Of course we don&#8217;t condone&#8230;.</title>
		<link>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/04/29/of-course-we-dont-condone/</link>
		<comments>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/04/29/of-course-we-dont-condone/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Apr 2010 10:01:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>crapstats</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/04/29/of-course-we-dont-condone/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From the NSPCC yesterday (as reported by the BBC website) More than two million images of child sex abuse had been circulated by 100 offenders who went on to be convicted in the last 20 months, the NSPCC says. Ms Sutton added: &#8220;The scale of graphic child sex abuse pictures and videos over the internet [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=crapstats.wordpress.com&amp;blog=586344&amp;post=89&amp;subd=crapstats&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From the NSPCC yesterday (as reported by the BBC website)</p>
<p>More than two million images of child sex abuse had been circulated by 100 offenders who went on to be convicted in the last 20 months, the NSPCC says.</p>
<p>Ms Sutton added: &#8220;The scale of graphic child sex abuse pictures and videos over the internet is very alarming. </p>
<p>&#8220;The number of images seized in these cases is enough to cover the pitch at Wembley Stadium twice over &#8211; and this is just a sample.&#8221;</p>
<p>I wonder how they know what resolution the Wembley pitch is set to. Given all the complants about it &#8211; its probably pretty low.</p>
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		<title>&#8220;That&#8217;s the little bit the boys admire&#8230;&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/02/12/thats-the-little-bit-the-boys-admire/</link>
		<comments>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/02/12/thats-the-little-bit-the-boys-admire/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Feb 2010 22:21:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>crapstats</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Now over the last couple of eventful months, your supposedly neutral blogmeister has become increasingly skeptic with regard to the globwarm question. He doesn&#8217;t yet believe that the earth is makiing new oil &#8211; so he can&#8217;t vote Republican yet He&#8217;s been reading the books and now has a much better idea of the issues [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=crapstats.wordpress.com&amp;blog=586344&amp;post=86&amp;subd=crapstats&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Now over the last couple of eventful months, your supposedly neutral blogmeister has become increasingly skeptic with regard to the globwarm question. He doesn&#8217;t yet believe that the earth is makiing <a href="http://www.mail-archive.com/ctrl@listserv.aol.com/msg114295.html">new oil</a> &#8211; so he can&#8217;t vote Republican yet<br />
He&#8217;s been reading the books and now has a much better idea of the issues &#8211; and much more respect for the labourers who have been toiling in the field for many years.<br />
But there is one thing which is bugging him quite lot which is the oft quoted stat that only 3.4% of Co2 emissions are caused by humans &#8211; actually the quote you will see more is 1.7% &#8211; the rest being &#8216;absorbed&#8217;.<br />
Now the one thing I believe to be true &#8211; because it would be so destroyed if there was any doubt, is that CO2 levels have <a href="http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2007/03/13/global-warming-mass-debate-begins/presentjpg/">nearly doubled in very recent times</a>. And in the absence of volcanoes of dinosaur extincting ferocity, it does seem to me that we humans and our hugely enjoyable civilisation are likely to be the cause.<br />
So unless anyone would like to set me right, I assume that the 1.7% is the extra that causes the increase &#8211; like you only have to eat a little bit extra to gain weight.<br />
Thinking about this I do realise one reason why many scientists are so happy to simplify and to distort when communicating to the GP: they had it done to them. Do you remember how after junior/GCSE level chemistry they suddently said: &#8216;Oh thats was a load of old bollocks about molecular bonding and the periodic table. We only told you that because we knew you were really interested in 8s and 2s. Actually we havent really got a clue, isn&#8217;t that much more fun.&#8221;</p>
<p>They never said that to me because I did history but isn&#8217;t that roughly the speech?</p>
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		<title>Global warming – Who knows? We all care.</title>
		<link>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/01/21/global-warming-%e2%80%93-who-knows-we-all-care/</link>
		<comments>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/01/21/global-warming-%e2%80%93-who-knows-we-all-care/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jan 2010 17:09:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>crapstats</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[As an Old Data Hand - I really got interested in this when I saw the data from New Zealand – showing that the raw and adjusted temperatures were showing different trends: Specifically the raw data was showing no trend and the adjusted data was showing an upward trend. We ODHs know that if you [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=crapstats.wordpress.com&amp;blog=586344&amp;post=70&amp;subd=crapstats&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As an Old Data Hand -<br />
I really got interested in this when I saw the data from New Zealand – showing that the raw and adjusted temperatures were showing different trends:</p>
<p>Specifically the raw data was showing no trend and the adjusted data was showing an upward trend. We ODHs know that if you can’t see it in the raw data, it probably isn’t there. Now that’s not always true and sometimes the data needs to be transformed in an amazingly elegant way and suddenly it fits a new pattern. Then you might get a Nobel Prize, or maybe a word of thanks – but it’s mostly it doesn&#8217;t happen.</p>
<p>So I was even more interested in ‘Climategate USA’, the revelation that the number of observation stations used in producing the GISS Land-surface air temperature anomalies (Global Temperature data for the newbies) had fallen from over 6000 to about 1500 during the 1990s and onwards. If there’s one thing we ODHs know, it’s that the easiest way to find what you expect in the data is to select the observations that you include in the result.<br />
(The second easiest way is to find something else to normalise it against!)</p>
<p>There are a lot of caveats and speculation after the exciting graph. </p>
<p>So I did a bit of work with the raw data that was made available through realclimate.org (Climate Science from climate scientists) which is the GHCN v.2 (Global Historical Climate Network: weather station records from around the world, temperature and precipitation) . I had previously checked that I got the same pattern from this data regarding the New Zealand divergence and also the Darwin station fuckup, so I am reasonable sure that I am dealing with the right sort of data.<br />
I certainly get the right sort of numbers against the station count.</p>
<p>I thought that if the stations observed vary from year to year, it might be interesting  to look each year in terms of ONLY stations that reported in that year and the previous year AS WELL (we sometimes call this a constant sample).</p>
<p>Obviously the absolute temperatures can vary very considerable, if a lot of cold stations were included in Years 1 and 2, but dropped in 3, then the Year 2 absolute would be much lower than the Year 3 absolute. However I can’t really see why  the change between the two years shouldn’t be a fairly valid statistic.</p>
<p>I can then apply the change to a base year and compare the trend between <strong>GISS</strong>, and <strong>My Constant Station </strong>trend. My data is of course unweighted by geography and has no interpolation. So I include <strong>my All Station </strong>data (also re-aligned to starting point GIFF base temperature).</p>
<p>I can then take the difference between my result for the constant sample stations and my result for all stations and apply that difference to the GISS temperature data (I’ve used absolute difference rather than an index ) to show what the GISS data might have looked like on a constant sample basis. (<strong>GISS+Constant sample</strong>)</p>
<p><img src="http://crapstats.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/newgiss1.jpg?w=510" alt="Dropping the stations?" /><br />
Notes and queries: Am I comparing Apples and Pears? I don’t really know – I’m using the GISS Global Land Station data so I hope not.</p>
<p>The series starts in 1946 as this is a bit of ground zero in the GISS data I’m using with a zero degree anomaly.</p>
<p>Things I haven’t take account of are probably too many to mention. The number of observations in a year from a station are taken into account in the averaging but if one year is January only and the next July only I haven’t bothered. I reckon these things tend to average out.</p>
<p>One interesting thing is how much more variable year to year the GISS data is than my All Station data – that’s the result of me using the data straight and not weighting the stations in any way (for instance by interpolation). I know this is land temperatures only, but logically I expect global temperatures to be pretty consistant year to year – of course possibly with a trend – because it’s the same whole Earth – is that a wrong assumption?</p>
<p>Of course the same analysis is possible for any country with a reasonable number of sample stations – although I haven’t done it<br />
<a href="http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/10/10/jon-sadleir-is-a-cunt/">And by the way Jon Sadleir is a cunt</a>.</p>
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		<title>Global Warming &#8211; dropping the stations</title>
		<link>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/01/17/global-warming-dropping-the-stations/</link>
		<comments>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2010/01/17/global-warming-dropping-the-stations/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 Jan 2010 17:11:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>crapstats</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[For those of you who dont know, there is a big row brewing about the global temperature data (everyone &#8211; GISS, CRU and the others) seems to use the same data which I downloaded from http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/#Climate_data_raw . Basically the number of weather stations used was 5000+ up to about 1990 and now its down to [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=crapstats.wordpress.com&amp;blog=586344&amp;post=66&amp;subd=crapstats&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For those of you who dont know, there is a big row brewing about the global temperature data (everyone &#8211; GISS, CRU and the others) seems to use the same data which I downloaded from <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/#Climate_data_raw">http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/#Climate_data_raw </a>.</p>
<p>Basically the number of weather stations used was 5000+ up to about 1990 and now its down to about 1500. Do they show a different trend? They certainly appear to.<br />
I divided the stations into those which are live in the data at some point from 2005 onwards and the chart below shows the trend for those stations compared to all the others (from 1910 to 2009). So the &#8216;All Others&#8217; line goes to 0 from 2005 onwards.</p>
<p>To me this really looks like the smoking gun that Climategate didn&#8217;t produce &#8211; sorry to all me &#8216;regular readers&#8217; for using this site to actually produce some data rather than comment on other peoples rubbish.</p>
<p><img src="http://crapstats.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/agw.jpg?w=510" alt="Dropping the stations?" /></p>
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			<media:title type="html">Dropping the stations?</media:title>
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		<title>Oh Dear &#8211; You can&#8217;t really make it up can you</title>
		<link>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2009/11/03/oh-dear-you-cant-really-make-it-up-can-you/</link>
		<comments>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2009/11/03/oh-dear-you-cant-really-make-it-up-can-you/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:25:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>crapstats</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[From the Guardian website: http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2009/nov/03/child-obesity-levelling-off A separate opinion poll yesterday suggested that 50% of obese people earn less than the national average income. The Liberal Democrat shadow health secretary, Norman Lamb, said: &#8220;This report makes for particularly disturbing reading as it highlights the worrying link between poverty and obesity. Until we stop trying to dictate [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=crapstats.wordpress.com&amp;blog=586344&amp;post=62&amp;subd=crapstats&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From the Guardian website:</p>
<p>http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2009/nov/03/child-obesity-levelling-off</p>
<p>A separate opinion poll yesterday suggested that 50% of obese people earn less than the national average income. The Liberal Democrat shadow health secretary, Norman Lamb, said: &#8220;This report makes for particularly disturbing reading as it highlights the worrying link between poverty and obesity. Until we stop trying to dictate policy nationally and give people the freedom to tackle public health problems locally, this cycle of poverty and ill health is likely to continue.&#8221;</p>
<p>And I&#8217;m not even going to point out that because of high earner distribution, over 50% of everyone earn less than the national average income &#8211; so actually the fatties are doing well.</p>
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		<title>Frankly Unlikely</title>
		<link>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2009/05/20/frankly-unlikely/</link>
		<comments>http://crapstats.wordpress.com/2009/05/20/frankly-unlikely/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 13:51:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>crapstats</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Times yesterday reported that 42% of Grandparents never see their grandchildren again after a divorce or separation. But assuming there is no reason why the parents of the parents with custody should be so affected (about 50% of grandparents), that would mean almost every other grandparent lost contact. This seems unlikely. I hope that [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=crapstats.wordpress.com&amp;blog=586344&amp;post=57&amp;subd=crapstats&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Times yesterday reported that 42% of Grandparents never see their grandchildren again after a divorce or separation. But assuming there is no reason why the parents of the parents with custody should be so affected (about 50% of grandparents), that would mean almost every other grandparent lost contact. This seems unlikely.</p>
<p>I hope that the report producers:  Families Need Fathers, the Grandparents’ Association and the Family Matters Institute aren&#8217;t including dead grandparents in order to create a more exciting number. I think that would be cheating. The Daily Telegraph has the same number but mentions that the sample size is a whopping 211. Were they perhaps recruited from the ranks of Families Need Fathers, the Grandparents’ Association and the Family Matters Institute?</p>
<p>Crapstats Rating: 1. Honesty score: 0</p>
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